December 18, 2004

My Really Snarky Comment

There were a couple of reasons why blogging was so light the past couple of weeks. One of which was health related, which I won’t get into here (perhaps later on my LiveJournal account), beyond to say that everything’s okay now. The other reason being that I’ve been pretty active commenting on other blogs. I don’t get a whole lot of commenters here, and sometimes I have the itch for some more interaction. Or maybe I’m sometimes itching for a fight, who knows?

Anyway, I generally don’t get too snarky (in both comments and this blog), but I’d like to highlight one notable exception. The discussion revolved around Rumsfeld, troop levels, and how to pay for more troops. But the reason I’m reposting it here is cuz I got in a real zinger (and, of course, being a blogger, I have a really high opinion of myself and want everybody else to share that opinion).

It was on Gregory Djerejian’s blog, The Belgravia Dispatch. It’s an excellent blog that I only discovered several weeks ago. Indeed, I think he has the most articulate and well-thought-through case for Bush that I’ve ever seen. I wish I had seen it before the election… not that it would have changed my mind (as I disagree strongly and still do), but so I could’ve linked to it in this post, as it’s much better than the pro-Bush posts from Jane Galt or Armed Liberal that I linked (with no disrespect to them). No matter what you think of Bush, it’s important to remember that there are intelligent voices on both sides of the debate. As I say, resist confirmation bias and keep an open mind.

Anyhow, Djerejian, despite supporting Bush, has been a vocal critic of Donald Rumsfeld for some time. Indeed, there’ve been quite a few critics of Rumsfeld from the right lately, including Senators John McCain and Chuck Hagel, which is not that new, nor surprising. But now it’s also coming from the likes of Senator Trent Lott, Senator Norm Coleman, Senator Susan Collins, Norman Schwarzkopf, Joe Scarborough, Thomas Donnelly, and the editor of The Weekly Standard, William Kristol (links via Djerejian here and here and also via Dan Drezner, another long-time conservative critic of Rumsfeld).

Djerejian’s criticism is centered mostly on troop levels, and on this post, a commenter asked:

Can someone point me to an argument in favor of the lesser number of troops in Iraq? … From what I gather on this site and others, increasing #troops from 150k to 250k is such a no-brainer that a 2 year old kid would be doing it. But so then what exactly is Rumsfeld’s motivation for not wanting to do so? …

Anyhow, if you’ve read my long-ass piece on Bush (and if you haven’t, I do highly recommend it), you can guess how I responded to him. Now I’m not qualified to comment on whether or not the troop level criticism is valid (I’ll leave that to folks like Djerejian), but assuming increasing troop levels is a “such a no-brainer that a 2 year old kid would be doing it,” my explanation for Rumsfeld and Bush’s behavior is that they simply don’t care all that much what actually happens in Iraq. I’m being serious. After all, this administration has been one of the least pragmatic ones in our history. As I later commented to him:

And the lack of pragmatism, to me, seems to be indicative of the mindset that it is easier to do whatever the hell it is you want to do and claim you’ve fixed something than to actually fix it. The lack-of-pragmatism explanation also fits quite a few examples…

Examples such as passing a supply-side tax cut to address a cap-ex recession, that huge increase in Medicare that nobody seems to like, the protectionist steel tariffs, the subsidy-laden farm bill, and the utter lack of fiscal responsibility. Not to mention why Bush has devoted more resources towards dealing with Iraq than he has with Iran, North Korea, or Al Qaeda. I discuss some of this in more detail in my Bush post.

Another issue that came up is where to get the troops. And after that overly lengthy intro, let me finally show the discussion thread that I wanted to highlight. His comments are italicized to separate them from my responses:

We’re not putting more boots on the ground because WE CAN’T. There are practical reasons why we can’t.

You’re the only one who says that we can’t. The rest of us are saying that it will be costly. But there’s a way to pay for that cost: roll back the tax cuts. We’re out of the recession now, after all, and they weren’t really Keynesian tax cuts in the first place anyway.

By “can’t” of course I mean “can’t, without incurring a cost which is too great”. … Is the lessened economic growth and perhaps loss of morale incurred by RAISING TAXES (I refuse to speak like a nincompoop and refer to RAISING TAXES as “rolling back tax cuts”) offset by the gains to be gotten by adding the N marginal BootsOnTheGround which could in principle be paid for by raising those taxes? I have no idea. And neither do you.

As the tax cut was not designed to stimulate economic growth in the first place, I doubt it will affect our economy that much at all, especially since Greenspan has been raising interest rates lately. If anything, a tax increase would merely allow Greenspan to leave rates where they are. Fiscal policy doesn’t occur in a vacuum.

Ok so you’re on the record stating that raising taxes will have no significant effect on the economy. I disagree. Now I have a better idea where you stand and where your cost-benefit analysis is coming from.

(He’d quoted me out of context to exclude my Greenspan comment, and I point that out) … The point being that fiscal policy can be easily balanced by monetary policy. Especially when it wasn’t strong fiscal policy in the first place.

Again, so you’re saying that raising these taxes won’t have a significant effect on the economy, right?…

I’m saying the effect can be easily neutralized by monetary policy. …

Does “can be” = “will be”? …

I suppose it’s remotely possible Greenspan could keel over and be replaced by an incompetent Bush loyalist.

After which he abruptly dropped that thread from the discussion.

You can read the whole thing, but I’ll have to warn you that it’s very, very long, and we weren’t the only two commenters. But I think it’s still pretty interesting before it gets nasty at the end (which was probably mostly my fault, as I kept getting snarkier, having enjoyed the above way too much for my own good).

Update 1/19/05

Donna has an excellent comment below, and I later wrote up a blog post in response.

December 18, 2004 06:26 PM in Economics, Foreign Affairs | Permalink
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Comments

That was a good comeback, I suppose :-)

Do you mean to tell me that nobody came up with a good reason for the smaller number of troops and nobody explained why increasing the number is not only costly but time consuming?

As to the current troop levels in Iraq, I don’t see where a massive increase in numbers would accomplish very much. One problem is the types of troops needed and that is being addressed, but well-trained units possessing special skills (military police, for example) aren’t available in instant mix stored on a shelf until needed.

Couple that with the way our military is organizaed - x number enlisted attached to an officer making up a unit… x number of units attached to a bigger unit… etc. While it might take 6 months to train 50 new recruits to be military policemen (it might take longer, I’m not sure, I’m not military) it takes 4+ years to train a 1LT (college, basic, etc.)

To add 100,000 or 150,000 new troops means quite a few 2LTs, 1LTs, and Captains. You’re looking at approx. 3 years between a 2LT and a Captain. There’s around 40,000 soldiers at Ft. Hood, that’s a lot of Majors, Colonels, and Generals too. It takes even longer to grow those.

It’s not just $$$

But let’s say somebody invents InstaSoldier (and InstaEquipment) in the various ranks needed and we send 100,000 new troops to Irag next month. What would that accomplish besides perhaps being able to bring home some of the whining National Guardsmen who only joined up because they thought we’d never go to war? (I have zero sympathy for them. Nada. Zilch. I also suspect that the whiners are glory hounds and few in number, but I haven’t even attempted to prove that.)

Would it not turn world opinion against us even more? Would it not demoralize, perhaps even alienate the peaceful majority of Iraqis who now support our presence there? Would it not look like we really were into ‘empire building’? Would it not likely incite more hostility from… say, Iran?

Rumsfeld was right, you go to war with the army you have. It may have been blunt, but it was correct. If he’d said anything else, it would have been a lie and he’d be beaten to death in the press over that.

The thing that annoys me is that nobody in the Bush administration can do anything - good or bad - without being criticized mercilessly for it. What has that accomplished? Nothing, except to drown out valid, reasoned criticism that might have actually done some good.

The media clowns looking for somebody, anybody, especially a Republican, to criticize Bush so they can immediately rush to air with “nanananabooboo… gotcha” silences (and sickens) reasonable voices on both sides.

Well… I should be posting on my own blog, but I’ve had lots of company and can’t believe I had enough uninterrupted time to write this!

Posted by Donna at 12/21/04, 12:01 AM (link)

Happy Holidays and keep on posting your comments on my blog. I enjoy them as well as reading your entries!

Posted by silvia at 12/22/04, 11:45 AM (link)

Thanks, Silvia.

Donna, I’m visiting with family, so I’ll respond to your excellent comment some other time.

And a Happy Holidays to both of you!

Posted by fling93 at 12/23/04, 11:41 AM (link)

Sorry for the long delay, Donna. Still working on my response. I expect to post it this weekend.

Posted by fling93 at 01/14/05, 04:04 PM (link)

Again, sorry for the delay. I finally have my response posted. Hopefully it’s a lot more thoughtful and less snarky than my comments at Djerejian’s blog. :)

Posted by fling93 at 01/18/05, 10:53 PM (link)