fling93 loves fishies

2003 NL Manager of the Year: McKeon

Well, the 2003 Manager of the Year awards were announced today, and Jack McKeon won in the NL (Tony Pena in the AL). He was followed by Dusty Baker, Bobby Cox, and finally Felipe Alou. I know many Giants fans may feel shocked and/or disappointed by Alou in fourth place. Personally, this was pretty much in line with what I expected, and indeed, I think it's pretty fair.

Those that follow a team closely know what that team has gone through, and it's easy to forget that other teams go through adversity as well. The Giants went through an incredible amount of turnover for a team that went to the World Series the year before. We lost Jeff Kent, Russ Ortiz, Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, and David Bell, replacing them with Ray Durham, Damian Moss, Marquis Grissom, Jose Cruz, Jr., and my guy, Edgardo Alfonzo. Then we lost our All-Star closer, Robb Nen, for the season. We faced other injuries (most notably to Durham, Aurilia, and Snow), plus Bonds, Schmidt, and Torrealba all experienced personal tragedies.

All that, combined with losing Dusty Baker and replacing him with Felipe Alou, and a 100-win season seems to cement Manager of the Year status in the minds of many Giants fans.

No doubt, Alou did a great job. But to win the award, you don't just have to be great. You have to be the best. And for a while, it's been no question in my mind that McKeon deserves the award. Regulars of the SF Giants Fan Forum know I've been involved in a long discussion about that for some time now (my posts are under the username of fishies -- yes, I know that was an unfortunate choice).

But note this about the Marlins:

• $30M lower payroll than the Giants.
• The team finished in 4th place the year before.
• Expectations for this season were lower than the Giants (most expected them to finish last).
• Torborg with this same talent had the team 16-22 by the time McKeon came in.
• They faced more key injuries than the Giants: their staff ace (Burnett) was lost for the year, best reliever (Spooneybarger) was out since June, remaining ace (Beckett) missed more starts than Schmidt and Rueter combined, and their best hitter (Lowell) was lost for the stretch run.
• The lower payroll meant they couldn't afford as deep a bench to handle the injuries.
• The NL East was clearly tougher than the NL West (92-67, head-to-head).

Yes, nobody expected the Giants to lead wire-to-wire and win 100 games. But plenty of people picked them to win the division, some of whom picked them to win the World Series. One example is here. Out of thirteen BaseballProspectus writers, eight picked the Giants to finish in first place, four picked them second, and one picked them third.

Contrast that with the Marlins. Ten out of thirteen picked them to finish in last place (two picked them fourth, one picked them third). As for the Cubs, seven picked them second (four picked them third, two picked them first). Or even the Braves: eight picked them second (four picked them first, one picked them third). None picked the Marlins to even reach the NLCS. Two picked the Cubs to reach the NLCS, but none to reach the World Series. Two picked the Braves to reach the NLCS, but again, none to reach the World Series.

For these writers at least, expectations for the Marlins, Cubs, and Braves were lower than for the Giants. To be sure, there are other predictions that differed, and I have a post that compiled as many as I could find. But not a single one had the Marlins even making it to the playoffs.

So McKeon to me looked like a no-brainer. As for Dusty Baker, yes, he had Prior and Wood, but comparing them to Schilling and Johnson is absurd:

2001 Schilling: #2 in ERA, #1 in wins, #1 in IP, #2 in Ks, #1 in CG, 132 career wins
2001 Johnson: #1 in ERA, #3 in wins, #2 in IP, #1 in Ks, #7 in CG, 200 career wins

2003 Prior: #3 in ERA, #3 in wins, #11 in IP, #2 in Ks, #8 in CG, 24 career wins
2003 Wood: #8 in ERA, #18 in wins, #12 in IP, #1 in Ks, #5 in CG, 59 career wins

The rather low number of innings pitched by these two is rather striking considering how weak a bullpen the Cubs had. And remember, Houston has Oswalt and Miller, while St. Louis has Morris and Williams. That, combined with the fact that a pretty similar team lost ninety-five games last year and was expected by most to finish second or third, and they faced some pretty severe injuries to Prior and Corey Patterson, and that explains why Baker was up there.

As for Cox, well I thought he and Alou did pretty similar jobs. Both teams went through a lot of turnover, but have similar payroll levels. Talent-wise, it's kinda tough to compare. Seems pretty even. Braves obviously had a great offense (first in the NL in runs scored) but weak pitching (ninth in team ERA). Giants have great pitching (second in team ERA), but a weak offense (sixth in runs scored). Kinda hard to judge, especially since the Braves ran away from the field offensively. Personally, I'd kinda rather have the pitching, so that, combined with playing in a tougher division, may have edged Cox ahead of Alou (either that or the East Coast bias in the sports media, but note that Dusty Baker had no problems winning the award when he was here).

But McKeon? He clearly deserves it, even if you don't take his eventual World Series championship into account. Or maybe I'm biased because I like fishies?